United posted solid Q4 2025 earnings with adjusted EPS of $3.10, but the real story is what they’re planning for 2026: taking delivery of over 100 narrowbody aircraft and approximately 20 Boeing 787s. That’s more widebody deliveries in one year than any U.S. airline since 1988.
Translation for points users: more international award seats should theoretically become available, especially to Europe and Asia.
The Numbers That Matter
United’s betting big despite underwhelming unit revenue performance. Q4 TRASM (total revenue per available seat mile) dropped 1.6% year-over-year while capacity jumped 6.5%. They’re adding seats faster than they’re filling them at premium prices, yet management projects 2026 EPS between $12-$14, representing 20%+ growth.
The disconnect? Premium cabin revenue and their co-branded credit card business are carrying the load. Basic Economy sales grew 7% in Q4, suggesting United’s chasing volume at the bottom while Premium Plus and Polaris subsidize expansion.
Where the New Planes Are Going
United’s already announced aggressive route expansion: Split, Bari, Santiago de Compostela, Glasgow, and Seoul for summer 2026. They’re also adding 14 domestic routes and bringing back every experimental summer 2025 destination including Greenland and Mongolia.
The 787 deliveries matter most for MileagePlus members. More widebodies mean United can justify keeping existing routes year-round instead of seasonal, and potentially opening award inventory they’ve been hoarding for revenue passengers.
The Award Availability Reality Check
Here’s what earnings calls won’t tell you: United’s capacity growth consistently outpaces their willingness to release saver awards. Operating margin is 7.8%—decent but not dominant—which means revenue management will keep strangling award seat releases on profitable routes.
Watch for award space on the secondary European cities (Split, Bari, Santiago de Compostela) where United lacks premium revenue pricing power. The Chicago-based routes to small Midwest cities? Regional jets flown by partners with minimal award seats.
What to Do Now
If you’re sitting on MileagePlus miles (or Chase points), search new route award availability when tickets go on sale. United typically releases a limited saver award batch at launch, then pulls inventory as demand materializes. The Seoul route from Newark (starting September 4) could be your best shot—new routes to competitive markets often have better initial award availability than established cash cows.
Are you optimistic United’s expansion will actually improve award availability, or just create more routes with “no saver awards found”? As a non-frequent United flyer, curious for how you feel the program stacks up against the other majors (like Delta) where it feels redemptions have either become prohibitively expensive or impossible.
